Trump-backed candidates don't look good in overall polls

Mario Tama/Getty Images As the primary season begins to wind down, a reactive media narrative has emerged on cable news: Republican vo...


Mario Tama/Getty Images

As the primary season begins to wind down, a reactive media narrative has emerged on cable news: Republican voters in many states have nominated the most hardline and MAGA-friendly candidate to represent the GOP in general elections. What this account forgets, however, is how poorly many of these candidates fare in the general election.

There is no doubt that the former president donald trump still wields immense power over the Republican Party. Since leaving the White House, he has been on a warpath to see every Republican in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach him lose their primary. In a Tuesday night post on Truth Social, he sung about Rep. Pierre Meijer lose against John Gibbs (which he endorsed), saying, “Not a good time for Impeachers – 7 down, 3 to go! Thanks Michigan!”

“A big night for Trump-backed candidates,” Fox Business presenter Maria Bartiromo announced Wednesday morning, ticking off the list of MAGA candidates who defeated their main Republican opponents. Predictably, many other conservative-leaning outlets expressed similar sentiments that are too numerous to quote.

The story of Trump’s influence on these Republican primaries is a legit. But that only tells half the story — or more like 25% of the story, depending on the actual size of Trump’s base. The other and most telling part of this political narrative? The majority of far-right extremist and pro-MAGA candidates are at risk of being smoked by Democrats in November’s general election.

Of course, relying on early polls is a dangerous game that often backfires, which could very well be the case here. But there is a clear pattern to observe: candidates favorable to Trump do not seem very eligible for the general.

State governor races are probably the best example. Candidate for Governor of Pennsylvania Doug Mastriano is so pro-Trump that he organized buses to the Capitol on Jan. 6 and attended events that day himself. With the help of Democrats who backed his campaign as a political game, he won the GOP nomination. The latest AP poll, however, has it down double digits to the democrat Josh Shapiro.

A similar story can be told of Maryland’s gubernatorial candidate. Dan Cox, who also traveled to DC on Jan. 6 and benefited from Democratic campaign dollars meant to boost an extremist. No poll has been released between Cox and Democrat Wes Moorebut it would be very hard to find even a conservative pollster who realistically thinks an extremist candidate like Cox would win the state house in such a blue state.

Perhaps the most-watched Republican primary is still being held in Arizona, where pro-Trump Lake Kari looks set to win primary against ‘guns, God and GOP’ promoter Karrin Taylor Robson. Lake is, of course, the Holocaust denier and the premature victory candidate who curiously (and unfoundedly) called on electoral fraud in a race, she seems to win.

But the most recent polls show that she is 9 points behind the Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs.

The Senate races don’t tell a much better story for Trump’s nominees. Herschel walker is until Rev. Raphael Warnock (yet only by three points), and Mehmet Oz is at John Fetterman by two-digit digits. It would be hard to find more pro-Trump candidates than famous candidates like former football player Walker and TV doctor Oz.

The Republican chances of taking control of the Senate have become so murky that at Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight changed his projection to predict, for the first time in this election cycle, that the Democrats will retain the US Senate.

Look, there’s no question that Trump’s influence over the Republican Party is unprecedented. He remains the leader of the GOP. Remember, though, that the vast majority of candidates running on a Trump platform look like losers…of the eventual general election.

This is an opinion piece. The opinions expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author.



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Newsrust - US Top News: Trump-backed candidates don't look good in overall polls
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