Bitcoin price indicator that marked 2015 and 2018 lows flashes

bitcoin ( BTC ) could see a massive price rally in the coming months, based on an indicator that marked bear market lows in 2015 and 2018...


bitcoin (BTC) could see a massive price rally in the coming months, based on an indicator that marked bear market lows in 2015 and 2018.

What is the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Lower Indicator?

Nicknamed “Bottom of Pi cycle“, the indicator includes a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). In addition, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the result is opposite to predicting the bottom of the underlying market.

Notably, each time the 150-period EMA fell below the 471-period SMA, it signaled the end of a Bitcoin bear market.

For example, in 2015, the crossover coincided with Bitcoin hits nearly $160 in January 2015, followed by an almost 12,000% bull run towards $20,000 in December 2017.

BTC/USD weekly price chart with “pi cycle bottom” indicator. Source: Trading View

Similarly, the second 150-471 MA crossover in history marked the end of the 2018 bear cycle. $69,000 in November 2021.

Only the third time in history

This week, Bitcoin’s 150-day EMA (at $32,332 as of July 12) is expected to close below its 471-day EMA (at $32,208), registering the third Pi cycle low in its history.

BTC/USD weekly price chart showcasing the next potential cycle low. Source: Trading View

The crossover appears as Bitcoin hovers around $20,000, after a price correction of more than 75% from its peak level of $69,000.

Related: Bitcoin price could hit $15.5,000 if it retests this historic lifetime support level

BTC/USD has been flirting with the level for almost a month, with the latest MLIV Pulse survey noting that its price is more likely to fall towards $10,000 than bounce towards $30,000.

Fears are emerging due to an ongoing carnage in the crypto market led by the failure of several leading companies.

MLIV Pulse Survey Results on Bitcoin’s Next Trend. Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, hawkish central bank policies which focus on removing excess liquidity from the economy have also spooked investors.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin could rebound to at least $30,000 if the given lower fractal plays out. The intermediate upside target coincides with the 0.236 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement chart taken from the $69,000 high to $17,000 low as shown in the chart above.

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