Total BTC inflows into exchange have been net negative since July 21

Bitcoin inflows on all exchanges have been negative since last July, but four major exchanges are bucking this trend with an almost equal...

Bitcoin inflows on all exchanges have been negative since last July, but four major exchanges are bucking this trend with an almost equal amount of net positive inflows.

There have been total net outflows of 46,000 BTC (worth around $1.8 billion at current prices) from all crypto exchanges since last July.

Only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, and FTX saw positive net inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC), according to March 7 data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode newsletter. During the same period, net outflows totaled 253,000 BTC from all other exchanges tracked.

FTX, Binance, Bittrex and Bitfinex have seen net positive BTC inflows since July 2021 – Glassnode

FTX and Huobi experienced the most dramatic shift in their BTC holdings since last July. While FTX more than tripled the amount of BTC it holds to 103,200 today, Huobi’s holdings have shrunk to just 12,300 BTC, or roughly 6% of what it held, from over 400,000. BTC in March 2020.

Most Exchanges Have Recorded Negative Net BTC Inflows Since July 2021 – Glassnode

Report outings were constant since last year, with some major peaks occurring in August and most recently on January 11.

However, Glassnode attributes the current relatively weak inflows to “the extent of market uncertainty at present” and suggests that the crypto trading market, in general, has shifted towards derivatives trading rather than on cash sales to hedge the risk.

Forex inflows are measured to help better understand whether investors are preparing to liquidate or hold their coins. Sharp inflows are incoming selling pressure while sharp outflows suggest more hodling.

Coins that remain on-chain maintain a realized price of $24,100 per BTC, suggesting that most hodlers enjoy a profit margin of 63%. The realized price is the average price of all the coins as they moved on the chain.

The realized price contrasts with an implied price of $39,200. The implied price is an estimated fair value price per coin and is currently just below break-even, as BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

Right now, short-term holders are underwater by around 15%, as the average price of coins that have moved on-chain over the past 155 days is $46,400 according to Glassnode.

Related: Rejection of bitcoin price at $39,000 and growing regulatory concerns drag market down again

Along with low inflows and outflows, sellers’ profit and loss (PnL) ratio has evidently flattened since the start of 2021. Glassnode suggests that long-term (LTH) holders are fed up with selling even though “We have yet to see a major LTH capitulation event, as seen in previous cyclical lows. He added:

“The historically small magnitude of STH and LTH losses may signal growing probabilities of overall seller exhaustion.”

The newsletter warns that there still remains the risk of a “final and complete capitulation of STH and LTH” which occurred at the low of previous cycles.