Trump pays for poll saying he wins in 5 battlegrounds

G: Douglas P. DeFelice / Getty Images R: Drew Angerer / Getty Images Former president Donald trump paid for a poll that says he beats...


Donald Trump Joe Biden SplitGetty Images

G: Douglas P. DeFelice / Getty Images R: Drew Angerer / Getty Images

Former president Donald trump paid for a poll that says he beats the president Joe biden in 5 battlefield states, and earned a Politico banner title in the process. Sounds legitimate, eh?

A die High stories in Politico and lead for their Politico Playbook bulletin Tuesday morning is a long story – by Co-author of the Playbook Marc Caputo – it’s centered around an ordered Trump-Super PAC survey.

The item says they “got” a poll score on the survey and the poll was not disclosed to them by the pollster, so do the math. The mystery surrounding the origin of the memo deepened further this afternoon when Trump himself sent by email the 2024 poll to everyone with the subject line “If the 2020 elections were held today”.

The note says that in 5 states Biden reversed – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Trump now leads with margins ranging from 3 points to 12 points.

Caputo and Playbook use the poll as a core around which to wrap speculation about Trump’s plans for 2024.

“Because we are POLITICO, Marc Caputo has a story this morning on DONALD TRUMP’s 2024 potential map. Granted, that’s not too surprisingly, it’s centered around the five states that JOE BIDEN reversed in 2020. But the level of engagement within Trumpworld at this point – which we didn’t necessarily expect, ”says the bulletin.

Perhaps the “level of engagement” had something to do with the almost certain certainty that a publication would be willing to report gulliblely.

In fact, Politico reports that the pollster, Tony Fabrice, it’s not a Trump thing, because Trump’s campaign advisers told them so.

“During the 2020 campaign, according to campaign advisers, Fabrizio’s polls were so dark for the incumbent that Trump didn’t like talking with him and was looking for other pollsters who would give him more favorable numbers,” wrote Caputo.

But some things were not mentioned in the article, like Fabrizio, the “B / C” pollster from Lee & Associates. Evaluation from 538. Nowhere does Caputo take the half-sentence of space it would take to note that the polls used a “likely voter” model rather than a more inclusive sample of “registered voters” or of “all adults”.

And perhaps more importantly, Caputo makes no effort to contextualize this poll score, which, as far as it is possible to measure it in states that were mostly not polled so early, the results de Fabrizio are clearly outliers.

Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan have not been polled since last year’s election, but the other two have.

In a published poll Last week, as many as 58% of Arizona voters said they didn’t even want Trump to run in 2024. survey Biden led Trump by 7. Fabrizio to Trump by 8 points.

a marquette survey earlier this month, Biden beat Trump in Wisconsin by 4. Fabrizio had Trump by 10.

None of this is to say that Fabrice’s discoveries should be completely ignored. Like same Steve schale of Pro-Biden SuperPAC Unite the Country admitted to Caputo, Biden poll figures have fallen for several months, and “there are historic headwinds that we face, that any president faces during a term: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party. “

But having a national publication that uncritically publishes your own internal poll is a powerful weapon in building a narrative for Trump. A Biden ally put a much finer point on this, telling Mediaite “It’s one thing for Trump’s crooks to keep cheating on him for fake polls to appease his injured ego after losing last year. . It is quite another thing for Politico to prioritize it in order to create the illusion of the “news”. A little sad on both points.

Whatever you think of Fabrizio’s numbers, they also come in the poll face which has consistently shown a significant erosion of support for Trump among Republicans. Survey after survey after survey have show that if Trump leads the hypothetical area of ​​GOP 2024, he doesn’t reach 50 percent. And huge chunks of GOP voters consistently say they don’t want him to run.

As for Biden, he saw his approval rating stabilize at around 43%, which isn’t exactly great but higher than the former president’s. that of Barack Obama low point before re-election. And Biden has just won two big legislative victories – the bipartisan infrastructure bill he just signed and the Build Back Better bill just passed in the House – which have yet to be given time to be. be taken into account in its polls.

This is an opinion piece. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone.



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Newsrust - US Top News: Trump pays for poll saying he wins in 5 battlegrounds
Trump pays for poll saying he wins in 5 battlegrounds
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