“The Bull Market Distribution Has Begun” - 5 Things To Watch Out For In Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin ( BTC ) starts a new week with a race to historic highs as the Bulls save the day – and the week – at the last minute. A week of...


Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with a race to historic highs as the Bulls save the day – and the week – at the last minute.

A week of sideways BTC price action ended just in time for the weekly close, with Bitcoin rebounding to $ 66,000.

It’s a classic move that has become all too familiar in recent weeks, and attention is once again focused on the bullish results.

While Wall Street still hasn’t opened, Monday has yet to set the tone for week three of “Moonvember,” which still has a month-end price target close to $ 100,000.

Can Bitcoin do it? Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that could help shape the BTC price path in the coming days.

The weekly closure leaves no room for bears

For those worried about what would happen at Sunday’s weekly close, it wasn’t necessary – Bitcoin didn’t disappoint.

After following sideways for most of the week, BTC / USD seized the opportunity in classic style to seal a new all-time high weekly candle that took it to $ 65,500.

$ 1,000 in earnings came literally at the last hour, typical of the behavior of the last few weeks.

Bitcoin thus closed each week above a multi-month trend previously considered a important test of overall strength.

For popular analyst TechDev, the close was notable for another reason, surpassing the 1.618 Fibonacci level and thus copying the action that served as a stepping stone in the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.

“Are you ready for what’s to come?” Personally, I’m not betting that this time around will be different for Bitcoin, ”he added in a separate Fibonacci position.

At the time of writing this article, BTC / USD was trading at just under $ 66,000, having briefly hit the zone at an overnight high.

Others have argued that the soft fork of Sunday Taproot deployment has not yet been fully appreciated. Like Cointelegraph Noted, major upgrades were also followed by significant price increases, as was the case with Segregated Witness (“SegWit”) in 2017.

“The market did not take into account the massive upgrade from Bitcoin Taproot,” Charles Edwards, CEO of investment firm Capriole, wrote.

$ 135,000 “still at stake”

Say what you want from the PlanB analyst at the end of the month “worst case scenarioBitcoin price prediction series – he sticks to his estimates.

Having correctly guessed BTC’s monthly close almost exactly for three consecutive months, PlanB now says that $ 98,000 on December 1 and $ 135,000 on January 1, 2022, are still achievable goals.

He is far from alone – like Cointelegraph reported, several sources envision a move to at least $ 85,000 in the coming weeks.

Zooming in further, PlanB’s stock-flow models are joined by other research showing just how cyclical Bitcoin has really been, even since before 2013.

A prediction last week, however, said that if Bitcoin hit a giant of $ 250,000 in January, it would eventually refute one of the stock-to-flow models for good.

“The bullish distribution has started”

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Bitcoin bull market this cycle?

Looking at what long-term holders (LTH) are doing, it looks like Bitcoin has entered its latest bullish chapter, but the most volatile.

Data from chain analytics company Glassnode Underline by analyst William Clemente shows that LTH investors have stopped accumulating net and are now divesting themselves of coins.

Characteristic of bullish highs, this “sell-off” marks the first net reduction in LTH holdings since April, when BTC / USD hit highs of $ 64,900, which remained at the cap for six months.

“Long-term holders buy weak BTC and sell strong,” Clemente commented.

“We just got our first red impressions of the LTH net position change in over 6 months, showing that the bull market distribution has started.”

Bitcoin LTH position change graph. Source: William Clemente / Twitter

Last time around, in Q4 2020, LTHs started selling ahead of Bitcoin’s price spike, with distribution peaking and then declining before the all-time high of $ 64,900 materialized.

Hash rate returns to all-time highs

One aspect of Bitcoin that is really hitting all-time highs this week is the hash rate.

After a quick but nonetheless long recovery from its crash five months ago, the core network is now measuring what it did from late April to early May.

According to data from live monitoring resource MiningPoolStats, excluding peaks and valleys in the raw data, the hash rate is approximately 168 exahashs per second (EH / s).

Bitcoin hash rate raw data graph. Source: MiningPoolStats

An accompanying graphic shows the extent of progress since miners began to move en masse out of China.

While the hash rate, which describes the computational power dedicated to mining, can only be estimated rather than measured exactly, the metric is now embarking on its first adventure into uncharted territory in nearly six months.

Like Cointelegraph reported, difficulty, arguably the most important indicator of Bitcoin’s core strength, also continues to return to all-time highs.

sunday added another 4.7% on the count, also marking the ninth consecutive increase in difficulty.

“Signs of foam”

Away from Bitcoin, traditional markets are starting to irritate – and not just investors.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, LTC, LINK, VET, AXS

At a conference last week, Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, sounded the alarm bells about the excessive growth in stocks.

“There are clear signs of foam,” he said of the Nomura-Wolfe basket of popular US stocks, cited by the Financial Times among others.

In what will look more like Bitcoin during times of rapid price growth, options see significant volume – and the leverage that goes with it.

“Everything seems crazy, there are bubbles here, bubbles there, everywhere,” said the FT quoting Erik Knutzen, investment director of investment manager Neuberger Berman.

“It has become a cliché, but we are really in uncharted waters, very unusual territory. “

While November has traditionally been a strong performing month for traditional financial and cryptocurrency markets, the tone fuels existing suspicions about the “only” nature of stocks in particular.

For Bitcoiners, the issue revolves around the overall correlation between the two – despite the fact that it has shed its own wings in recent months, BTC can still be affected by sudden changes in sentiment elsewhere.

An example was Tesla, who fell in step with Bitcoin last week following the sale of 10% of CEO Elon Musk’s stake.