One year after losing, no one has a better chance of being elected president in 2024 than Donald Trump

Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images. One year ago, Donald trump lost his presidency by a fairly wide margin both in the Electoral Co...


President Trump leaves White House for Arizona trip

Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images.

One year ago, Donald trump lost his presidency by a fairly wide margin both in the Electoral College and in the popular vote. Just over nine months ago, Donald Trump was impeached for the second time by the House of Representatives. And yet, one way or another, there is a strong argument that, to this day, no one has a better chance of winning the next presidential election than Donald Trump.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean he has more than a 50% chance of succeeding in what would probably be the most spectacular comeback in American political history, but rather only that there is no one there, including President Joe biden, who is more likely than Trump to be president in early 2025.

The calculation of this equation is actually quite simple. Trump has to introduce himself first, and that seems like a virtual certainty. In fact, the only logical scenarios where he doesn’t run are if he’s in jail (which, despite widespread liberal fantasies, is extremely dubious), in very poor health, or if he decides to bail out at the very latest. second after bleaching. the field because of serious candidates afraid to run against him.

Currently, all of these results are statistically very unlikely. So, unless there is a very important event, if only because his ego demands it, Trump will run for president again.

So of course he has to win the Republican nomination. There are only two potential candidates, the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki haley, who could theoretically defeat Trump in head-to-head battles (in an extended three-way race between them, it would be very difficult to see, given the size of his base, how Trump would eventually lose).

Trump’s grip on the party, certainly formidable, is a bit overrated, especially considering the results last night in Virginia and New Jersey, where Republicans who haven’t fully embraced Trump have done so well. However, there is a good likelihood that Trump will not be forced to face a direct challenge from someone who can actually hurt him.

Obviously DeSantis and / or Haley should decide to introduce themselves first, and there’s a reasonable chance they’ll accept a pass. After all, the prospect of defeating Trump in a GOP primary is intimidating and, due to the slash-and-burn nature of how Trump campaigns, extremely dangerous to an opponent’s future prospects. DeSantis has the added problem of having to run for re-election in 2022, while his wife struggles with serious health issues.

For now, there is at least a 50% chance that Trump will be the Republican candidate in 2024. There are only two possible candidates he would face on the Democratic ticket: either Biden or the current vice president. , Kamala harris.

If events continue in their current direction, especially given the Democrats’ poor performance last night, there may well be less than a 50% chance that the Democratic candidate is Joe Biden. If the President decided not to run, there would likely be a contested primary, but under the new ‘wake-up’ rules it would be considered racist and sexist to challenge a Harris coronation, so she would likely head for the nomination, assuming anyone of the note had the audacity to race against her.

This means that, unless Covid and inflation somehow go away, there’s a good chance Trump will end up bumping into a weak old Joe Biden with a dismal record in the first term, or against Harris’ perfect portrayal of the raging “awakening”. Either way, Trump would have at least a 50% chance of winning.

Keep in mind that no curator knows more than me how incredibly unpopular Trump is with the majority of Americans, and how counterproductive it would be to have him as a Republican candidate (again, especially after proving last night that you can still get Trump voters without be deeply involved). However, the path to an Electoral College victory for Trump in 2024, while incredibly narrow, is remarkably plausible for even him to navigate.

Because the margins ended up being so impressive for Biden in 2020, the vast majority of political commentators don’t realize that if a few thousand votes had been reversed in just Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, we would have had a 269-269 tie, and that that exact same map in 2024 would in fact be successful. to a Trump victory due to changes in the distribution of votes by state.

Trump clearly has obstacles to getting back to the White House … his health, potential legal issues, DeSantis / Haley and Biden / Harris … but none of them are intimidating and, if events continue on something close of their current trajectory, all of them could end up being fairly easily overcome. Obviously, a lot can and will happen within two years, when the 2024 campaign really heats up, but Trump again becoming president is at least as likely as any other rational scenario.

You can’t say you haven’t been warned.

This is an opinion piece. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone.



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Newsrust - US Top News: One year after losing, no one has a better chance of being elected president in 2024 than Donald Trump
One year after losing, no one has a better chance of being elected president in 2024 than Donald Trump
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