Why the Dow 36000 forecast was correct

Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett have these pages in March 1998 at dismiss worries of a stock market bubble and exp...


Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett have these pages in March 1998 at dismiss worries of a stock market bubble and explain why stocks could still go much higher. It was already pulling their necks. But they then pushed them back, arguing – with many nuances – that in the long run the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach 35,000. Their simple policy advice: buy a diversified stock portfolio and don’t invest too much in it. ‘money. obligations. Over the long term, stocks offer a higher return without significantly higher risk. Their basic reasoning, which depended on investors gradually merging around their point of view, was that stocks should rise as the market’s risk premium aligned with empirical reality.

Later, in 1999, they got even more involved in a bestselling book called “Dow 36,000”. In it, their very rough estimate of the timeframe was five years. The left hated them, in large part because Mr. Hassett is a prominent Conservative economist. The Right loved them, in part for the same reason. Overall, it’s probably fair to say that the book was seen as somewhere between outrageous and absurd.

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