Covid resurgence made Gavin Newsom suddenly vulnerable to recall

Agustin Paullier / AFP / Getty About two months ago, I wrote, rather confident , that while the Governor of California Gavin Newsom m...


Gavin Newsom

Agustin Paullier / AFP / Getty

About two months ago, I wrote, rather confident, that while the Governor of California Gavin Newsom more than deserved to be recalled in the September special elections, that he would not be impeached by our very liberal electorate. While I still don’t bet that will happen, there is now a pretty solid case that it won’t survive, in large part because the recent surge in Covid cases, apparently due to the Delta variant, has caused it. placed in a very vulnerable position.

When I predicted here that Newsom was a close lock to survive the recall process, this projection was not just based on the polls that had him comfortably in mind, but also because the perceived state of the pandemic was radically different at the time. Since Newsom’s anti-American and monarchical excess on Covid restrictions was a big part of why the booster even made the ballot, and thanks to the vaccines it turned out that we were no longer in danger of him locking us in again, it seemed like fear and anger who had motivated the whole process would have disappeared by the time the votes were cast.

Since then, negative data from Covid has made a dramatic comeback, and it has become clear that the vaccines that Newsom has highly touted (even running a TV lottery to reward those who have been vaccinated), while still being a very powerful tool. important against horrific results, may not be as effective as thought. This apparently made Newsom a political “catch 22” with four major voting blocks, as polls now show the recall is gaining significant support with only five weeks before his fate was decided.

Voters outraged by Newsom’s draconian and dictatorial measures against Covid are now convinced that he will shut us down again if not recalled, and now more forceful than ever, especially with polls showing real momentum. Those of Newsom’s “awakened” political base, who actually seem to like wearing masks and telling others how to live, are surely angry with him for NOT reinstating the restrictions, and may lose some enthusiasm for him.

Meanwhile, at least some of those who were on the fence about Newsom’s response to Covid may have lost faith that everything that has been done in the past 18 months has made a big difference as California did not do better than average, and the “cases” here are ALWAYS peaking. Finally, young voters suddenly seem to have found a reason to support the recall as a poll, shockingly, has an unknown Democratic YouTuber named Kevin Paffrath the lead candidate to replace Newsom if the recall passes.

All of this created an explosive situation for Newsom (one on which his recent extremely winey and desperate comments indicate he is now aware of the potential danger he now faces), one of the key questions being whether the media will now light a match or do their best to pour cold water over the whole process. At the moment, they could go either way.

In 2003, when California recalled the Democrats Davis Gray, the news media played a central role in creating momentum for the movement, effectively becoming (driven by ratings / enthusiasm rather than the political agenda) an arm of the Arnold schwarzenegger campaign. This time around, the media is A LOT more invested in that Newsom is not taken down, if only because they have carried his water so enthusiastically for him on the very Covid restrictions that got the recall on the newsletter. vote.

In a very real sense, the media (which has been even worse here in California than it has been nationally on Covid restrictions) is itself on the ballot. Therefore, it would seem likely that this time around, they will largely resist the temptation to allow Newsom to be deleted, despite the fact that it would create such a dramatic scenario for them.

To be clear, if the media suddenly decided to promote the Paffrath campaign and even educated the public a little about the ineffectiveness / destruction of Newsom’s Covid measures (with particular attention to the scientific absurdity of our schoolchildren being forced to hide in class this coming school year), Newsom would almost certainly be toast and forced to join the disgraced future former New York governor Andrew Cuomo on the scrap metal of former Covid media heroes. But, in this situation, all forms of media seem far too ingrained in Newsom and its Covid narrative to ever dare to breathe oxygen into this burgeoning flame that could easily cause its destruction and, by extension, further destroy what remains of it. their credibility.

My presumption is that most of the mainstream media here in California and across the country will be circling the cars for Newsom, largely attacking the radio talk show host. Larry Elder, who is currently the leading Republican candidate to replace him if the recall is successful (and who, being a conservative talk show host, has said a lot that would offend the sensibilities of the average California voter). With the media on their side, a lot of money to spend (who, thanks to very ineffective ads, is currently not helping), and with every voter in the state having received a main ballot, Newsom still has plenty of guns in his arsenal.

Ironically, the one he surely would have liked to use but perhaps didn’t, if he was perfectly timed, led him to an almost certain victory. If, say two weeks ago, he instituted some sort of major Covid restrictions, based on how the Delta variant quickly faded, apparently due to purely natural forces, in places like India and the UK he could have claimed – surely with the universal help of the media – a big win as the cases have dropped dramatically (just like they did last September in California) leading up to the final polling days.

It would be incredibly rich if the man who changed America forever by being the first governor to lock down his state ended up being fired in part because he failed to re-restrict his population when it might have worked. for him politically. This scenario is still far from certain, but it is now as plausible, if not more, than other currently rational outcomes.

This is an opinion piece. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone.



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Newsrust - US Top News: Covid resurgence made Gavin Newsom suddenly vulnerable to recall
Covid resurgence made Gavin Newsom suddenly vulnerable to recall
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