As Democrats contemplate urban gains, Republicans will count on drawing favorable neighborhoods

New Census Bureau data portrayed a more diverse and metropolitan nation than many analysts had anticipated, adding to longtime Democrati...


New Census Bureau data portrayed a more diverse and metropolitan nation than many analysts had anticipated, adding to longtime Democratic hopes – and Republican fears – that sweeping demographic shifts could ultimately result in a new progressive majority.

But while the data seemed to fuel Democratic hopes, it also signaled the start of an intense phase of congressional redistribution that should help Republicans.

The share of non-Hispanic whites in the population fell to 57.8%, nearly two points lower than expected, as the number of non-Hispanic whites in the United States fell for the first time. Large areas of predominantly white rural America have seen their populations decline.

In almost all respects, the new data released on Thursday seemed to bode well for Democrats, who feared Latino and urban voters were gravely underestimated amid the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration’s efforts to pose questions about citizenship status.

While it’s still possible the census underestimated Hispanics, early results left no clear evidence that the count had gone wrong. The Hispanic portion of the population was in line with projections. New York City, once the epicenter of the pandemic, has significantly exceeded pre-census projections.

The possibility that the shrinking non-Hispanic white share of the population could help progressives gain a permanent electoral advantage has loomed over U.S. politics for more than a decade, helping to compound Conservative fears over immigration. and even to motivate a wave of new laws intended to restrict access to the vote.

Yet the country’s growing racial diversity has not radically upset the balance of power in Washington. Despite the seemingly favorable demographic picture portrayed by the 2020 census, the 2020 election nonetheless yielded another very divided result: a 50-50 Senate, one of the closest presidential elections in history, and a majority in the House so thin it could be defeated by the data Democrats are celebrating today.

Democratic-leaning voting groups may represent a growing share of the population, but the country’s political center of gravity continues to shift to the traditionally Republican Sun Belt, where Republicans control the process of constituency redistribution in states that have won. of congressional constituencies during redistribution this spring.

The data released today, which contains detailed population counts and demographics for every neighborhood in the country, will usher in an intense period of new electoral mapping, with the potential to determine control of Congress and state legislatures across the country. country in next year’s midterm elections. .

Republicans, who have the power to redraw more ridings than Democrats, are expected to gain around five seats from the redistribution alone.

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Newsrust - US Top News: As Democrats contemplate urban gains, Republicans will count on drawing favorable neighborhoods
As Democrats contemplate urban gains, Republicans will count on drawing favorable neighborhoods
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