The Jobs Report: The Boom That Wasn’t

It’s a little secret of the news business that for some anticipated events, like a Supreme Court decision or the death of a prominent fi...


It’s a little secret of the news business that for some anticipated events, like a Supreme Court decision or the death of a prominent figure, we pre-write much of an article or different versions of them so that we can publish quickly once news occurs.

Which is why there is now a trashed draft of this article explaining how the April jobs numbers show what a hyper-speed economic recovery looks like. It was completely wrong.

Employers added only 266,000 jobs last month, the government reported Friday morning, not the million or so that forecasters expected. The unemployment rate actually edged up, to 6.1 percent.

The details of the new numbers are messy. Temporary employment fell sharply (down 111,000 jobs), while hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector was robust (up 331,000 jobs). It will take time to figure out why so many mainstream forecasts were so wrong — the modest job creation is out of whack with what other indicators have suggested — and whether some part of the weak results is more statistical aberration than reality.

But if robust job growth doesn’t return quickly, it will be very concerning. The economy is still short 8.2 million jobs from its February 2020 level. The great hope has been that employers would fill that gap rapidly, bringing the United States back to its full potential in short order.

Even if you view April as an outlier, job growth has averaged only 524,000 a month for the last three months, a pace that if continued would imply a long slog back to full health. It certainly does not signal the kind of rapid boom that many forecasters have started to expect, and that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are hoping for.

These numbers are consistent with the story many business leaders are telling, of severe labor shortages — that demand has surged back but employers cannot find enough workers to fulfill it, at least not at the wages they are accustomed to paying. Many employers and conservatives argue that the expanded federal unemployment benefits have been too generous (they were extended as part of the recent pandemic rescue aid package and are scheduled to expire in September).

Citing the jobs report, the Chamber of Commerce on Friday urged an immediate end to the $300 weekly unemployment benefit supplement.

April’s slow job growth was accompanied by significant pay increases. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.7 percent, not too shabby on its own. And in certain sectors the pay raises were blockbusters, including a 4.8 percent rise in leisure and hospitality average hourly earnings — in a single month.

It’s worth noting that the labor force is growing — an additional 430,000 Americans were either working or looking for work in April — so it’s pretty much the opposite of the situation after the 2008 recession, when wages were growing slowly and millions were leaving the labor force.

Still, it remains possible that many people remain reluctant to jump back into work for a variety of other reasons: having to care for children whose classes are remote; fearing the coronavirus; reconsidering their careers.

Back in 2010, the Obama administration introduced one of the more unfortunate economic messaging concepts of recent decades, announcing that a “Recovery Summer” was underway. It became a punchline, because while the economy was expanding, Americans were still far worse off than they’d been before the 2008 recession, and improvement was coming very slowly.

That’s one outcome the Biden administration desperately wants to avoid.

Source Link

COMMENTS

Name

Africa,819,Americas,4123,Art & Culture,14956,Arts,6503,Arts & Design,1672,Asia,3282,Automobile,463,Baseball,632,Basketball,527,Books,3897,Business,5347,Celebrity,2633,Cricket,648,Crime,158,Cryptocurrency,1577,Dance,669,Defense,836,Diplomatic Relations,2496,Economy,1150,Editorial,260,Education,1255,Elections,308,Energy & Environment,3076,Entertainment,22716,Environment,3620,Europe,4230,Faith & Religion,235,Family & Life,817,Fashion & Style,3266,Finance,19996,Food & Drink,3752,Football,1111,Games,97,Gossip,10289,Health & Fitness,4095,Health Care,937,Hockey,227,Home & Garden,920,Humour,994,Latin America,49,Lifestyle,17099,Media,527,Middle East,1532,Movies,1730,Music,2657,Opinion,3077,Other,11948,Other Sports,5051,Political News,11324,Political Protests,2324,Politics,17720,Real Estate,1864,Relationship,106,Retail,3116,Science,2636,Science & Tech,10045,Soccer,238,Space & Cosmos,347,Sports,12257,Technology,3442,Tennis,578,Theater,1685,Transportation,313,Travel,2572,TV,3688,US,243,US Sports,1481,Video News,3531,War & Conflict,1069,Weird News,998,World,16517,
ltr
item
Newsrust - US Top News: The Jobs Report: The Boom That Wasn’t
The Jobs Report: The Boom That Wasn’t
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/05/07/upshot/07up-jobs-sub/07up-jobs-sub-facebookJumbo.jpg
Newsrust - US Top News
https://www.newsrust.com/2021/05/the-jobs-report-boom-that-wasnt.html
https://www.newsrust.com/
https://www.newsrust.com/
https://www.newsrust.com/2021/05/the-jobs-report-boom-that-wasnt.html
true
732247599994189300
UTF-8
Loaded All Posts Not found any posts VIEW ALL Readmore Reply Cancel reply Delete By Home PAGES POSTS View All RECOMMENDED FOR YOU LABEL ARCHIVE SEARCH ALL POSTS Not found any post match with your request Back Home Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat January February March April May June July August September October November December Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec just now 1 minute ago $$1$$ minutes ago 1 hour ago $$1$$ hours ago Yesterday $$1$$ days ago $$1$$ weeks ago more than 5 weeks ago Followers Follow THIS PREMIUM CONTENT IS LOCKED STEP 1: Share to a social network STEP 2: Click the link on your social network Copy All Code Select All Code All codes were copied to your clipboard Can not copy the codes / texts, please press [CTRL]+[C] (or CMD+C with Mac) to copy Table of Content