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Trump’s Unlikely Path to Victory


Some Republicans are looking to 1988 as a model for turning around a sinking candidacy and surging to victory. George H.W. Bush, who trailed Michael Dukakis by as much as 17 points after the Democratic convention, ended up beating the Massachusetts governor by more than 7 points in November.

The parallel is less than perfect. Mr. Bush was not an incumbent president with a record to defend, and Mr. Dukakis was not well-known to the electorate. The Bush campaign defined Mr. Dukakis before he could define himself. By contrast,…

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