One running joke of the Brexit talks has been that they are like climbing a mountain. Negotiators have tried to publicly one-up each other with jaunty gifts of walking poles and mountaineering guides, adding a bit of colour to an otherwise dry saga.
It is in that spirit that Theresa May will travel to Salzburg in the Austrian Alps next week to meet EU leaders in search of a breakthrough. In Westminster, the meeting has been much hyped. But she may leave on Thursday feeling like she has hit another false summit.
The PM will arrive with the fundamental principles of her Chequers plan having already been put to the sword by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The British government still insists the plan lives, blames Barnier’s “dogmatic legalism” for dismantling it, and hopes to engage directly with national leaders who it sees as a softer touch.
The big hope for the UK is that after a frank discussion, member states will soften their instructions to Mr Barnier so that he can make concessions. But the convenient narrative of governments aghast at what their negotiator is doing doesn’t seem to accord with reality.
“Legally the Commission doesn’t need a new mandate,” one senior EU diplomat said, speaking ahead of the summit. “The Commission needs a mandate for the withdrawal agreement and this is what they have.
“I don’t see a situation where Michel Barnier says, ‘I’m fine with the mandate’, and the heads of state give him another one. If we should give additional guidance – and that is a big if – it would only be done in concerted discussion with the Commission.”
Other Brussels sources point out that there cannot even be any change to Barnier’s mandate at Salzburg, because it is an informal summit and doesn’t have the legal power to make instructions. Any change agreed informally would have to be passed next month, at the October European Council. Britain may be barking up the wrong mountain.
I don’t see a situation where Michel Barnier says ‘I’m fine with the mandate’ and the heads of state give him another one
Senior EU diplomat
If there is one concrete thing the prime minister might get at Salzburg, it is yet another summit. Proposals have been floating around in Brussels backrooms for a dedicated Brexit meeting to be held in Brussels in mid-November – a date increasingly seen as a new deadline for a deal (RIP October).
This looks increasingly likely, simply because of time constraints. Salzburg isn’t about Brexit: it’s supposed to be about internal security and border control and Britain’s departure is expected to get two hours over lunch. After Salzburg, the next time leaders meet will be the October European Council in Brussels. But a significant chunk of that meeting will be taken up by Asian presidents and prime ministers who will be in town to talk trade and investment. Once again, Brexit could take a back seat. After that, it’ll be December – which the EU has long insisted is too late.
While being told to “come back in two months when we can fit you in” might be embarrassing for Ms May, it would also buy her more time – something that is running increasingly short after a paralysing summer.
The prime minister should expect a warning from leaders in Salzburg about the need for a solution to the Irish border. But to sugar that pill, they may yet manage to summon up some warm words about Chequers – perhaps on security, or the fact it recommends a free trade agreement. There is practically zero chance they will endorse its single market for goods proposals, or its customs plan, however – the two major sticking points. But with any declaration on the future relationship now widely expected to be a vague fudge anyway, that might not matter.
“They are looking for something positive to say,” one official says. “Carrot and stick.”
While the focus in Westminster has very much been on Chequers, it is Ireland that needs to be solved to prevent a no deal. Sources in Brussels have for months suggested the Commission is working on a new version of its ‘backstop’ to prevent a border. But what form it will take – and whether it will be any more palatable – remains to be seen. Work on that was delayed because Britain was slow to hand over data relating to existing checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea – on which the Commission wants to base its new proposal. It may not be ready in time for Salzburg, but it will be crucial for a deal.
Despite its limitations, the British strategy of trying to go over the Commission’s head to member states continues. Some are more receptive to UK proposals than others, but where there are differences, they are more ones of emphasis than fundamental principles.
Brexit so far: in pictures
1/28 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/28 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union.
AFP/Getty
3/28 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union.
AFP/Getty
4/28 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016.
Getty
5/28 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/28 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children.
AFP/Getty
7/28 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU.
Getty
8/28 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain's first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom's intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017.
Getty
9/28 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU.
AFP/Getty
10/28 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign.
Getty
11/28 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government.
AFP/Getty
12/28 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority.
AFP/Getty
13/28 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017.
AFP/Getty
14/28 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens' rights.
AFP/Getty
15/28 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made.
AFP/Getty
16/28 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK.
Getty
17/28 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May's will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May's whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305.
18/28 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain's Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days.
AFP/Getty
19/28 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018.
PA
20/28 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January, 2018
AFP/Getty
21/28 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018.
Reuters
22/28 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues.
AFP/Getty
23/28 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue.
Getty
24/28 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border.
EbS
25/28 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the "Chequers deal" on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan.
PA
26/28 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement.
Reuters
27/28 Davis out, Raab in
Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis.
Reuters
28/28 Barnier's "deal like no other"
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
1/28 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/28 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union.
AFP/Getty
3/28 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union.
AFP/Getty
4/28 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016.
Getty
5/28 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/28 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children.
AFP/Getty
7/28 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU.
Getty
8/28 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain's first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom's intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017.
Getty
9/28 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU.
AFP/Getty
10/28 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign.
Getty
11/28 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government.
AFP/Getty
12/28 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority.
AFP/Getty
13/28 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017.
AFP/Getty
14/28 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens' rights.
AFP/Getty
15/28 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made.
AFP/Getty
16/28 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK.
Getty
17/28 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May's will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May's whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305.
18/28 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain's Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days.
AFP/Getty
19/28 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018.
PA
20/28 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January, 2018
AFP/Getty
21/28 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018.
Reuters
22/28 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues.
AFP/Getty
23/28 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue.
Getty
24/28 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border.
EbS
25/28 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the "Chequers deal" on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan.
PA
26/28 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement.
Reuters
27/28 Davis out, Raab in
Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis.
Reuters
28/28 Barnier's "deal like no other"
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
EU leaders are well aware that they have nothing to gain from being divided in public by Britain. Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker used his annual state of the union speech on Wednesday to spell out the logic, which runs through not just Brexit talks, but all the EU’s dealings.
“When we are united, we Europeans, as a union, have become a force to be reckoned with that you cannot do without … Whenever Europe speaks as one, we can impose our position on others,” he said.
Though the Commission president was talking about his dealings with Donald Trump, he could just as easily have been speaking about Brexit.
The Independent has launched its #FinalSay campaign to demand that voters are given a voice on the final Brexit deal.
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